3.3 与基于实际负荷曲线的控制效果对比
目前,针对储能系统参与削峰填谷的控制策略大多是基于实际负荷曲线进行的,而本控制策略中采用了基于支持向量机算法得到的超短期负荷预测曲线,负荷预测曲线的引入主要为使本控制策略具有一定的全局性和前瞻性。本节中将通过对比基于预测负荷曲线和实际负荷曲线的控制策略作用效果,以上海商业园区1月某工作日实际负荷曲线与工作日典型负荷预测曲线进行仿真,从而论证了引入负荷预测曲线的优越性。基于典型负荷预测曲线下该控制策略能够通过协调考虑未来30 min内的控制效果,对比不考虑负荷预测情况下,基于实际负荷曲线仅考虑当下时刻的控制效果,图17给出了两种情况下的控制效果对比。
图17 控制效果对比
由上图看见,引入负荷预测曲线能够明显降低负荷侧峰谷差,而实际负荷曲线下,由于未考虑下一时刻的控制效果,目标函数仅以当前整10 min内的SOC状态和负荷侧波动性为主进行调节,因此,减少了储能的出力,其控制效果有所降低。
4 结论
本文提出了一种商业园区储能系统的变参数功率差控制策略,主要内容包括：
1)基于商业园区典型日负荷预测曲线,确定储能系统动作上下限,将负荷划分为3个区间。引入2个SOC状态控制变量,将SOC划分为5个区间。在不同SOC状态区间与不同负荷区间,为储能系统制定了不同充放电策略。
2)为评估储能削峰填谷效果与SOC状态,引入4个子目标函数,采用适应度函数变差系数排序法确定各子目标函数权重,对加权后的目标函数采用动态自适应粒子群算法进行寻优,确定不同状态区间和负荷区间储能系统控制参数。
3)本控制策略是基于典型日负荷预测曲线制定的,因此,能够统筹未来30 min内的控制效果,通过与基于实际负荷曲线的控制效果对比,验证了其前瞻性和优越性。
4)由于控制策略中协调考虑了储能系统SOC变化的影响,避免了储能系统出现SOC越限情况,同时,可有效调节SOC变化范围,考虑到目前储能系统配置成本较高,通过有效降低SOC变化范围能够减小工程成本。
但由于目前对储能削峰填谷效果评估缺乏统一标准,园区负荷预测精度仍有待提高,因此进一步研究园区负荷预测精度不同对本文控制效果的影响,将是论文后续研究内容。
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